Australian households considering rooftop solar can expect stable upfront costs, with Small-scale Technology Certificate (STC) prices holding firm at AUD $39.45 as of July 6, 2026. This stability comes despite a 4% month-on-month easing in national small-scale solar installations for June 2026, according to new market data released by SunWiz on July 10, 2026.
The latest figures offer a nuanced view of Australia’s vibrant rooftop solar sector, which continues to be a global leader in per-capita adoption. While installations saw a slight dip in June, the predictable STC market provides a consistent financial incentive for new systems.
STC Prices Maintain Stability Near Clearing House Cap
The average spot price for Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs) was recorded at AUD $39.45 on July 6, 2026. This figure reflects a stable market, close to the Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) fixed Clearing House price of AUD $40 per certificate (excluding GST). The market saw a trade at AUD $39.80 in the week ending July 3, 2026.
This relative stability is a positive for consumers, as STCs directly reduce the upfront cost of installing eligible solar PV systems. For context, the CER’s Quarterly Carbon Market Report for Q1 2026 noted STC prices settling at $39.65 by the end of March. The consistent pricing means that the federal government’s primary incentive for small-scale renewables continues to offer predictable savings.
“STC prices remained below $40 through Q1 2026, reflecting ongoing surplus conditions in the clearing house.”
June 2026 Installations See Slight National Retreat
National small-scale solar PV installations, measured by STC registrations, eased to 322 MW in June 2026. This represents a 4% decrease from the previous month and is 26% below April’s all-time record of 435 MW. This dip follows a period of strong growth, with Q1 2026 setting a record of 791 MW installed capacity across 77,000 installations.
The national average system size also experienced a slight reduction, slipping to 10.01 kW in June – a 12-month low – down from 10.47 kW in May and April’s peak of 11.32 kW. This could indicate a return to slightly smaller residential systems or a shift in market composition.
State-by-State Performance Highlights Queensland’s Growth
While the national figures show a slight contraction, state-level data reveals varying trends. Queensland demonstrated robust growth, with STC registrations increasing by 16% month-on-month in June. This strong performance contrasts with downward trends observed in other key states:
| State | June 2026 MoM Change in STC Registrations |
|---|---|
| Queensland | +16% |
| Australian Cap. | -1% |
| New South Wales | -3% |
| Western Australia | -5% |
| Northern Territory | -9% |
| Tasmania | -11% |
| Victoria | -9% |
| South Australia | -9% |
This uneven performance suggests that local market conditions, state-specific incentives, and consumer behaviour continue to play a significant role in solar uptake across Australia. For those in Queensland, the market momentum could translate to more competitive installation quotes.
Broader Market Context and Future Outlook
Australia’s commitment to renewable energy targets continues to drive the solar market. The federal government’s 82% renewable energy target by 2030 necessitates approximately 60 GW of new solar and wind capacity, providing a strong policy backbone for continued growth.
As of June 16, 2026, over 4.437 million solar power systems have been installed on Australian homes and small businesses, representing approximately 40.71% of all households. This high penetration rate underscores Australia’s position as a global leader in rooftop solar adoption. While the STC scheme is set to gradually reduce the number of certificates issued until its conclusion in 2030, its current stability offers a valuable incentive for homeowners.
Consumers considering a solar installation should factor in the STC rebate, which is applied at the point of sale by accredited installers. Understanding the optimal What Solar System Size Do You Really Need in Australia 2026? Future-Proofing for EVs & Electrification is crucial for maximising long-term savings. Furthermore, exploring Best Solar Panel & Home Battery Financing Options in Australia 2026: Loans, PPAs & Green Mortgages Explained can help manage the upfront investment.
Recent changes to STC calculations for battery installations, effective from May 1, 2026, also signal the evolving landscape of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, with different rates applying based on usable battery capacity. This highlights the increasing integration of battery storage with solar PV systems, enhancing grid stability and energy independence for households. For those interested in energy resilience, reviewing Home Battery Backup for Blackouts in 2026: Systems & Costs from $7,000 is recommended.
Overall, despite a minor national dip in June installations, the stability of STC prices suggests a consistent environment for Australians looking to invest in solar energy, with regional markets like Queensland showing particular strength.