Australia’s East Coast is bracing for a tight gas supply outlook for the crucial winter months of July to September 2026 (Q3), according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) latest Gas Inquiry interim report. While the report was published on 1 April 2026, its detailed forecasts for the current quarter make its findings highly relevant for Australian households and businesses contending with energy costs this winter.
The ACCC’s 28th interim report highlights that the East Coast gas market is expected to hover between a 12 petajoule (PJ) shortfall and a 3 PJ surplus for Q3 2026, a balance heavily contingent on how much uncontracted gas is exported by Queensland-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers. This precarious supply-demand outlook means southern states, including Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory, will continue their reliance on gas flows from Queensland and strategic gas storage facilities to meet demand.
“Wholesale gas supply on Australia’s east coast is expected to be tight and large volumes of gas will likely be required from storage to meet demand in the third quarter of 2026.”
Wholesale Prices See Moderate Increases
While the market faces supply tightness, the ACCC noted a moderate increase in long-term contract prices. Gas prices offered by producers under long-term contracts for 2026 supply increased by an average of 4 per cent in the final quarter of 2025, reaching approximately AUD$13.55 per gigajoule (GJ). Equivalent contract prices offered by retailers averaged AUD$13.93/GJ, marking a 3 per cent increase over the same period.
However, the report also provided some perspective, stating that these contracted gas prices for 2026 remain “well down from the very high levels seen during 2022-23.” This suggests a stabilisation compared to the extreme volatility of previous years, but still represents an upward trend as winter demand peaks.
Government Intervention and Future Outlook
In response to the ACCC’s forecast of potential shortfalls, the Minister for Resources has already issued a Notification of Intent (NOI) to consider activating the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) for Q3 2026. The ADGSM acts as a measure of last resort, allowing the Minister to secure domestic gas supply by potentially requiring LNG projects to limit exports or find alternative gas sources. Consultation with industry stakeholders is underway to explore industry-led solutions to prevent a shortfall.
The ACCC’s inquiry into gas supply arrangements in Australia was extended by the government through to 2030, underscoring the ongoing need for market monitoring and transparency. While the ACCC’s next interim gas inquiry report was scheduled for June 2026, it has not yet been publicly released as of early July. Therefore, the March 2026 report remains the most comprehensive public assessment of the East Coast gas market’s near-term outlook.
Impact on Households and Businesses
For Australian households, particularly those in the southern states heavily reliant on gas for heating and hot water, the tight supply outlook and modest price increases mean careful energy management remains crucial this winter. While the increases are not as severe as previous years, any upward pressure on wholesale prices can eventually translate to higher retail bills. Businesses, especially gas-intensive industries, will also need to monitor market conditions closely and review their supply contracts.
Considering alternatives to gas for heating and hot water can offer significant long-term savings. Heat Pump Hot Water Australia 2026: Slash Bills by $900+ with Rebates details how heat pump technology can drastically reduce energy consumption. Furthermore, understanding your overall energy consumption is key to managing costs, and resources like Navigating Australia’s Energy Bill Relief and Support in 2026: A Comprehensive Guide can help identify available support.
Key Price and Supply Figures (Q4 2025 & Q3 2026 Outlook)
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Producer Long-Term Contract Prices (2026) | Average AUD$13.55/GJ (+4% Q4 2025) | ACCC |
| Retailer Equivalent Contract Prices (2026) | Average AUD$13.93/GJ (+3% Q4 2025) | ACCC |
| Q3 2026 East Coast Supply-Demand Balance | 12 PJ Shortfall to 3 PJ Surplus | ACCC |
| Southern States Reliance | Queensland Gas & Storage | ACCC |
Australians are encouraged to stay informed about their energy plans and consider energy-efficient upgrades to mitigate the impact of ongoing market volatility.